Aspen Hill, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

455
FXUS61 KLWX 060852
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
352 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories are in effect
where the Extreme Cold Watch was in place. High Wind Warnings
and Wind Advisories were issued across much of the forecast
area. Additionally, Gale Warnings, Storm Warnings, and Heavy
Freezing Spray Warnings are in effect over the waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the Alleghenies late
  this morning through Saturday morning

- 2) Extreme cold and strong winds will result in dangerous wind
  chills this weekend.

- 3) Temperatures should start to increase on Monday, with a
  chance for mixed precipitation later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the
Alleghenies late this morning through Saturday morning.

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 10AM this morning
to 7AM Saturday morning with near-blizzard conditions expected
across the western portions of the Alleghenies. Snow totals of 6
to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts along the western
favored ridges are expected. Further east in the Alleghenies,
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect beginning this
afternoon through the overnight. Total snow accumulations
between 2 and 4 inches are expected.

As an Arctic front moves across the Alleghenies tonight, heavier
bursts of snow showers are expected. During this time, snow
squalls are possible within the Winter Storm Warning.

In addition to accumulating snowfall, gusty northwest winds as
high as 50 to 60 mph will result in blowing and drifting snow.
This will yield reduced visibilities as low as 1/4 mile across
roadways.

Outside of the Alleghenies, guidance continues to show snowfall
further east Friday afternoon. Accumulations from a dusting to a
few tenths are expected across much of the area, with
accumulations of an inch possible along the Blue Ridge.

Synoptic discussion: A series of mid/upper troughs will
traverse the area today into Saturday, bringing several intense
periods of snow to the Alleghenies. The leading shortwave
arrives this morning to afternoon, then the main upper trough
and Arctic front cross the area Saturday morning.

The strong trough crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic will
provide ample lift to generate heavy snow showers across the
mountains today into Saturday. In addition, increasing
instability through the DGZ Friday evening and very high SLRs
will generate squalls. Travel disruptions are likely along
I-68/US-40 west of Frostburg, MD, US-219 from the PA/MD line
south to the WV line, US-48 west of Moorefield, WV, US-33/WV-28
west of Franklin, WV, and US-250 west of Monterey, VA.

Strengthening winds will also lead to significant blowing and
drifting snow. The strongest winds on Saturday don`t overlap
with the best lift and instability, so don`t see a need for a
Blizzard Watch. Squalls will likely continue through the day
Saturday given the strength of the low- level flow and high
Froude numbers.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Extreme cold and strong winds will result in
dangerous wind chills this weekend.

A strong low pressure system located offshore paired with arctic
high pressure moving in from Canada will yield a tight pressure
gradient over the forecast area today into Sunday morning.
Additionally, an upper level trough digs across the east this
weekend, with a low level jet intensifying over the forecast
area Saturday morning.

Model soundings continue to show mixing up to around
925mb, with a stout inversion located just above that level
between 850-900mb. The strongest winds are maximized just above
the inversion, but there is still around 50-60 kt of wind just
below that inversion. The strong synoptic setup (with breaking
lee waves off the Alleghenies) will allow these strong winds to
mix down to the surface. A sudden onset of strong winds is
expected right right as the Arctic front passes through. There
is high confidence for widespread, persistent gusts in the mid
to upper 40kt range (50-55 mph), with occasional gusts to
50-55kt (60-65 mph) possible.

High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued across
the forecast area with the exception of Orange and Spotsylvania
Counties. Wind headlines go into effect tonight and persist
through Saturday evening. Cold temperatures from the Arctic
front combined with gusty winds will yield dangerously cold wind
chills. Therefore, the Extreme Cold Watch was converted to
Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories for much of
the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures should start to increase on Monday,
with a chance for mixed precipitation later in the week.

Once this weekend`s upper trough moves to the northeast starting
Sunday night, a general zonal flow pattern will encompass a large
portion of CONUS early next week. Winds should generally ease up,
and temperatures will steadily start to warm up on Monday.
Temperatures reaching the upper 40s could be seen in areas south of
the I-66 corridor on Tuesday. Starting sometime mid-next week,
models are showing a possibility for a weak low to move across the
Great Lakes approximately by Wednesday. Depending on how far north
this low tracks, this could result in some wintry mixed
precipitation in the region, although temperatures are still
trending warmer by then.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue across the terminals this morning with
light winds expected. Snow showers are possible across all
terminals this afternoon, with little to no accumulation
expected. The main hazard expected with snow showers will be
slightly increased gusts and reduced visibilities. Currently
have -SHSN in PROB30 groups as guidance continues to shift
south. For the 12Z TAFs, will likely include in prevailing
groups, especially at KMRB where confidence is highest. Periods
of heavier snowfall are possible, leading to potential IFR or
LIFR conditions. Additionally, the frontal passage will result
in a wind shift to northwest winds.

A powerful Arctic front crosses the area early Saturday morning.
Light winds will rapidly increase from the northwest around
daybreak Saturday, with gusts of 40-50 kt ensuing and lasting
through the afternoon. A few gusts above 50kt are possible at
times, but the majority will likely be in the mid to upper 40kt
range. Winds begin to decrease in the late afternoon, but still
gusting 30-35 kt into the evening.

Once this weekend`s low passes through, winds should be fairly
benign for the early portion of next week. Winds will likely shift
SE overnight on Monday, and generally stay at 5-10 knots until a
potential Wednesday low increases gust potential. VFR conditions
likely for Monday and Tuesday, although a southern pressure gradient
may cause some lower CIGs Monday night at KMRB.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and non-hazardous marine conditions continue through
late this evening. Snow showers are possible over the waters,
possibly resulting in reduced visibilities and sporadic gusts
near SCA criteria. Otherwise, benign conditions over the waters
expected today.

Tonight, a potent Arctic front pushes across the forecast area
with a rapid onset of Gale Force Winds expected. A Gale Warning
is in effect for tonight, with increasing winds leading to a
Storm Warning being in effect beginning Saturday morning.
Northwest wind gusts up to 50 knots are expected. Additionally
Gale Warnings are expected Saturday night through Sunday
morning. Winds diminish on Sunday with SCA criteria winds
expected over the open waters through late Sunday evening.

NW winds ranging 10-15 knots are expected for most of the day
Monday, and SCAs are not out of the realm of possibility as winds
continue to decrease after Saturday`s major arctic frontal event.
Gusts up to 20 knots are possible. By Tuesday, winds and gusts
should be fairly low, ranging 5-10 knots with a southeastern
directional shift occurring overnight Monday.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Blowout tides are expected late Friday night through Sunday
night. Water levels as low as -2 ft MLLW are possible. Low Water
Advisories are likely to be issued. The ice covered waters of
the northern/middle bay and tidal Potomac could result in the
potential for damage to docks, moorings and boats, especially
when blowout tides result in significantly lower water levels.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for DCZ001.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for DCZ001.
MD...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday for MDZ008.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for MDZ006-008-011-501-503-505>510.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
     Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for MDZ008.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for MDZ003>005-013-014-016>018-502-504.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for MDZ501.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EST Saturday
     for MDZ501-510.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for MDZ509-510.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     MDZ509.
VA...Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for VAZ503-504-507-508.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     VAZ025>031-053-054-501-504>506-526-527.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for VAZ025>031-040-053>055-057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for VAZ503.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EST Saturday
     for VAZ503-507-508.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for VAZ036>040-
     051-055-057-502.
WV...Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for WVZ501-503-505-506.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for WVZ050>053-055-502-504.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for WVZ503.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EST Saturday
     for WVZ501-503-505.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ530>543.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ530.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ530.
     Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ530>543.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ532-533-542.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KRR/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/KRR/SRT
MARINE...AVS/SRT